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Abstract
The Doha round of WTO negotiations has been ongoing since 2001. In the summer of
2008 the negotiations on the modalities for a new WTO agriculture agreement
collapsed when seemingly on the verge of a successful conclusion. In this paper we
present quantitative analysis of the impact of a new WTO agreement undertaken using
a partial equilibrium model of Irish and EU agriculture. Results are presented on the
agreement’s impact on Irish and EU-27 agriculture markets and on Irish agricultural
sector incomes. Our analysis highlights the importance of the Baseline counter-factual,
and will illustrate that protection afforded by the conferral of sensitive product status
differs from commodity to commodity. The paper will draw conclusions concerning
the economic impact of an agreement on Irish agriculture and Ireland’s likely future
perspective on the conclusion of the Doha Round.