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Abstract
This paper addresses the timing of historical transition from rural to urban activity.
In our model, rural production has constant returns and meets subsistence needs,
while urban production has scale economies and meets the demands of higher-income
consumers. Urbanization occurs sooner when rural or urban productivity is higher or
transport costs are lower. We test the model on worldwide data that divides the earth's
surface at half-degree intervals into over 60,000 cells. From an independent estimate
of each cell's rural and urban population history, we identify the date at which each
cell achieves various thresholds of urbanization. Controlling for country fixed effects
and neighbors' urbanization using spatial techniques, we find that the date at which
each cell passes each urbanization threshold is positively associated with its suitability
for cultivation, having seasonal frosts, more access to navigable waterways and lower
elevation. Aggregating cells into countries, an earlier urbanization date is linked to
higher per capita income today.