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Abstract
A key argument in the societal debate against polices to
support biofuels is that production of these alternative fuels
may in fact consume more energy than they generate and
emit more greenhouse gases than they sequester (Fargione et
al., 2008; Searchinger et al., 2008; Rajagopal and Zilberman,
2007; Farrell et al., 2006; Pimentel and Patzek, 2005). Metrics
like net energy value, net carbon value and net petroleum offset
are the basis for comparing the various fuels and are the source
of these debates. The technique that underlies the calculation of
these metrics is called lifecycle assessment or lifecycle analysis
(LCA).
A central aspect of LCA (described in detail in the next
section) is it assumes linear technologies and produces outcomes
that are numbers – how many units of energy are needed
to produce a liter of ethanol fuel from a ton of corn. But as basic
economics suggests, under reasonable conditions of some
substitution between inputs and processes in production, this
ratio is not a number but a function of prices. For instance,
with energy being a ubiquitous input to production, a change in
the relative price of different energy sources or with respect to
other inputs will induce adjustments in the form of fuel switching,
substitution between capital, energy and labor etc. This
switching can occur at several levels in the production chain of
a commodity. This will obviously alter the net carbon indicator
for a fuel in the future.
Also current LCA outcomes change only if the physical
quantities of various inputs such as quantity of coal or electricity
used in calculating LCA change. In other words, today LCA
is capable of answering, how does a 10% decrease in the share
of natural gas in the average electricity mix decrease the net
carbon value of ethanol? But it is not capable of answering, if
natural gas prices increase by 10% what is the impact on the
net carbon value of ethanol? Obviously the latter is more intuitive
and useful way of framing the question than the former
from a policy standpoint. In this paper, we introduce a framework
which can be used to derive LCA indicators directly as a
function of underlying economic parameters and make it easier
to simulate the impact of policies like pollution taxes and fuel
mandates which in one way or another ultimately alter the relative
price of commodities.
Next we provide some background on current LCA literature.
We then introduce a micro-economics based LCA that integrates
prices directly into the lifecycle framework. We point
out some implications of our model with simple illustrations.
We finally describe directions for future work.