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Abstract
Choosing a mechanism to encourage landholders to change their land management in
order to deliver environmental outcomes is a complicated process. Careful instrument
selection may count for little if uptake and adoption are insufficient to meet
performance targets. Similarly, investors may require assurance that the proposed
investment will deliver the stated goals. In order to reduce the uptake uncertainty
facing policy makers we evaluate and describe several possible methods to guide and
frame adoption targets. We conclude that referring to past adoption experience of a
wide range of mechanisms offers the best approach to setting feasible adoption targets
for future mechanisms. We call this adoption points of reference. This approach is
tested by application to mechanisms focusing on delivering water quality
improvements in GBR catchments. We conclude that the points of reference approach
is appropriate and useful but should be supported by processes designed to
incorporate the impact of heterogeneity and local knowledge and an emphasis on
improving the accuracy of future data.