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The Murray Darling Basin Current is currently in drought. There are low water levels in most dams, and increased uncertainty about future rainfall. As a result management of the ecosystems in the basin that depend on river flows involves some hard decisions about what assets to save and what assets to let go. This paper models this triage problem using a stochastic and dynamic programming approach. This model is used to identify how optimal management is affected by hysteretic and irreversible effects of drought on ecosystem assets and uncertainty about future climate.


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