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Abstract

This study seeks to forecast land use change in a North Georgia ecosystem, and estimate the economic value of the ecosystem using benefit transfer techniques. We forecast land use change based on a structural time series model and a simple growth rate model. The study suggests a lower bound willingness to pay value of about USD 16,000 per year to ensure compliance with fishing and drinking water quality standards with regard to fecal coliform bacteria and dissolved oxygen. Conservation efforts are likely to cost less than the cost of defensive behavior or ecosystem restoration.

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