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Abstract
We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on
announcements’ rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational
estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR
numbers. Using the market’s best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify
conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price
response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures.
Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly
supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term
(long-term) price changes.