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Abstract
The primary sector has always had a fundamental role in human activities. In recent
years, major industrialised and developed countries increased demand for the positive
externalities generated by the agriculture, while they reduced the importance of the sector in
terms of production of food.
The evolution of public intervention followed the change of the role of agriculture and
has tried to propose instruments able to consider and balance both private and public interests.
It is especially with the Mid Term Review (MTR) that policy maker has tried to implement a
system of subsidies that bound the farmer to a series of activities related either directly or
indirectly with the collective welfare. Moving from coupled aid to decoupled one linked to
the respect of cross-compliance means changing the concept of public intervention. In this
context, a useful evaluation tool should be able to analyse and to catch the changes in farmers
behaviour by considering also the territory in order to locate the effects. The territory, as a
matter of fact, is not only the place where the effects passively fall, but it is capable of
interfering directly in the farmers decision-making process.
Therefore, the development of specific methodologies able to analyze farmers’
behaviours and specific instruments linked to the territorial analysis could represent an
important tool to assess agricultural policies effects both on enterprises and territory.
In this framework a methodology based on the Positive Mathematical Programming
(PMP) and on the implementation of a Geographic Information System (GIS) seems to
answer the several questions about the policies’ assessment and land-use planning. The
present research integrates this two methodologies.
PMP is used in a territorial model and it is based on the optimization of an objective
function representing a farm gross margin while GIS allows to analyze territorial aspects and
to locate the effects of the policy. This tool has been tested in a specific case study in order to
analyse the effects of the CAP Reform (in particular decoupling, cross-compliance and
modulation) on the primary sector and on farm land use potential changes. The innovative
aspect of the research is the attempt to study the impact of agricultural policy through an
optimization model that considers among its variables also the specific localization of farms.
The final result is represented by the creation of georeferred maps in which the land use
changes are evaluated and interpreted under the framework of multifunctionality, in terms of
quantitative analysis regarding landscape and, abandonment risk and cattle distribution.