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Abstract
The study tries to answer the following questions: Will
exposure to world agricultural prices generate more poverty
or less? To what extent will households be affected by changes
in agricultural trade polices? Do multilateral agricultural
liberalization matter more than bilateral changes?
Results of simulations using a computable general
equilibrium (CGE) model linked to household survey data
suggest that trade liberalization has only modest effects on the
level of GDP, but it has a substantial effect in reducing
poverty. Moreover, the combined effects of global and
domestic liberalization are more pro-poor than the effect of
domestic liberalization alone. As a net importer of agricultural
commodities, Tunisia may be expected to experience terms-oftrade
losses from higher world agricultural prices. However,
given Tunisia's significant agricultural import protection
policies, it is expected that the agricultural sector will lose from
trade liberalization that removes this protection.