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Abstract
Renewable solar, tidal and wind energy
have the potential of reducing dependency on fossil fuels
and their environmentally negative impacts. Because of
their variability, wind and solar energy in particular
impose added costs on electrical grids as system
operators attempt to balance operation of existing
thermal power plants. In this regard, tidal stream power
has an advantage over solar and wind energy as tides
are predictable and comparatively regular; yet, tides
remain intermittent and thereby still may create
inefficiencies to the grid.
In this paper, we develop a dynamic optimization
framework for analyzing the allocation of power output
across generating sources when tidal and wind power
are added to the system. In particular, we minimize the
cost of satisfying the 2006 British Columbia electricity
demand. We use tidal current and wind data from sites
around Vancouver Island to estimate the effects of an
increase in renewable energy penetration into grids
consisting of three typical generating mixes – the British
Columbia generation mix that has a significant hydropower
component, the Alberta generating mix with a
coal-fired power dominance, and the Ontario generation
mix which includes significant nuclear and coal-fired
generation.
Simulation results over an entire year (hourly time
step) indicate that the cost of electricity will increase
from its current levels by between 73% and 150% at
renewable penetration rates of 30% depending on the
assumed generating mix. The cost of reducing CO2
emissions ranges from $97.47 to $1674.79 per tonne of
CO2, making this an expensive way of mitigating
emissions. The reasons for these high costs are increased
inefficiencies from standby spinning reserves and
operation of plants at less than optimal levels (so that
more fuel is burned per unit of electricity). Further, it is
impossible to determine the displacement of emissions
by renewable energy without considering the complete
operating system.