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Abstract
Weather variability can threaten French
suckler cow farms which rely on rather extensive forage
production. However, flexibility of the production
system can help farmer to face crop production shocks.
This study aims at assessing how crop yield shocks
impact on farms outcomes when adaptive capacity is
taken into account. Our objectives are to develop a
dynamic model which enables us 1) to predict the
optimal mix of production adjustments to face crop yield
shocks, 2) to quantify how far the system moves from
the equilibrium and how long it takes to return and 3) to
measure impact of shocks on economic results when
adaptive capacity is taken into account.
An original dynamic recursive bio-economic farm
model integrating detailed technical and biological
constraints and coupled with biological sub-models has
been built and calibrated to represent an average farm
producing charolais finished animals. Crop yield shocks
of intensities ranging between -60% and +60% of their
average values are simulated in between average years.
A preference for maintaining animal sales and
animal live weight at the expense of crop products trade
balance is found. Thought, when intensities of shocks get
higher, forced sales and important variations of the area
of pasture cut are observed. Essential of loss (or gain) of
net profit is felt the year of the shock but can be
remnant for several years. In addition, gains for good
years do not totally compensate loss of symmetric bad
ones. Consequently, farms capacity to face risk could be
weaken over time. Minimum consumption needs,
probability distribution of shocks and successions or
combinations of shocks would have thought to be taken
into account to assess real capacity of farms to maintain
over time.