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Abstract
Turkey’s membership to the EU will involve full
liberalization of agricultural trade with the EU. The effects of
liberalization are bound to depend on the path of agricultural
policies in Turkey and in the EU during the accession
negotiations. In order to evaluate the possible impacts of a
variety of policy alternatives and scenarios, an economic
modelling approach based on non-linear mathematical
programming is appropriate. In this framework, the major
purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of Turkish
integration to the EU on agriculture using an agricultural
sector model for Turkey. The basic approach undertaken
supplements the past efforts by incorporating Maximum
Entropy to the positive mathematical programming, together
with updated base period and including recent policy changes.
Following the integration with EU, the net exports in agro-food
products decline mainly due to the expansion of trade in
livestock products. Overall welfare effects of including agrofood
products in the customs union and membership are small.
Consumers benefit from declining prices. CAP supports are
determinative for producers’ welfare. The results of the
simulations provide also updated estimates about the possible
size of CAP expenditures for Turkish agriculture.