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Abstract
The risk of non-indigenous pests entering the
UK via international trade in fresh produce is
increasing. Suppliers of fresh produce to UK and EU
multiple retailers are utilising new procurement areas
for fresh produce importation to reduce their costs of
production. The objective of this paper is to identify
current and future supply sources for UK fresh produce
importers and examine the extent to which they provide
invasion pathways. The hypothesis that increased
importation of fresh produce from new sources outside
the EU could increase the risks of non-indigenous pests
is tested in a bio-economic model in which the number of
species detections per unit of imports is a function of the
number of inspections per unit of imports and country
of origin, while the volume of imports is itself a function
of the gross domestic product, relative import prices,
policy and seasonality variables. The study has identified
clear trends, which show import volumes and pest
species detections increasing from new supply sources.
The study found that risk of pest species differs
significantly with the country of origin of commodity. If
this trend should continue in the future, then UK plant
health inspectors should expect to confront pest species
in much greater numbers. The results support the case
for discriminatory policy to use the limited resources
available in a way that will more closely target
inspection efforts on the higher risk trade pathways.