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Abstract
Due to the complexity of general and partial
equilibrium models, conventional sensitivity analysis,
qualitative reviews or literature-based meta-analyses do
not allow for detailed assessments of the role of
individual parameters and policy shocks across different
models. Therefore, the partial equilibrium model
“GSIM” and a single country CGE are employed to
generate synthetic scenarios based on randomly
specified combinations of base data, elasticities and
tariff changes selected from previously specified,
plausible ranges. The synthetic meta-data has the
advantage that the values of explanatory variables are
measured exactly. This makes it possible to explore
complex issues of functional form and interaction
between variables in the estimation of the response
surface of each model as well as for a joint response
surface of both models. The results indicate that firstand
second-order polynomials provide sufficient
approximations of the model responses, and especially
for the CGE model, interaction terms of elasticities with
policy variables play an important role. Furthermore,
simultaneous estimation of a response surface of
scenarios from both models proves to be feasible and
enables quantitative comparisons of different model
output, e.g. welfare measures.