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Abstract

This article analyses the mechanism behind the changes in agricultural land use arising from climate variables, agricultural policies and socio-economic pressures. The study presented here has undertaken an integrated methodology in the estimation of future land use change in Europe. The scenarios constructed in this study include estimates not only of changes in the climate baseline, but also of possible future changes in socio-economics. The overall aim of the study was to raise the awareness of policy makers about the vulnerability of the European rural economy and agro-ecosystems based on economic and environmental considerations in term of both their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to change.

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