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Abstract
There have been intensive debates on the role of aid in promoting economic development
in developing countries by using cross-country analyses. Cross-country regression assuming
linear relationship between aid and growth and without taking into heterogeneity of countries
would produce biased estimates. To correct this, in this paper we investigate the relationship
between foreign aid and growth using recently developed sample splitting methods that allow us
to simultaneously uncover evidence for the existence of heterogeneity and nonlinearity. We also
address model uncertainty in the context of these methods. We find some evidence that aid may
have heterogeneous effects on growth across two growth regimes defined by ethno-linguistic
fractionalization. However, when we account for model uncertainty, we find no evidence to
suggest that the relationship between aid and growth is nonlinear. In fact, our results suggest that
the partial effect of aid on growth is likely to be weakly negative. In this sense, our findings
suggest that aid is potentially counterproductive to growth with outcomes not meeting the
expectations of donors.
However due to the data comparability problem and inherent econometric problem in
cross-country regression, more detailed country case studies are needed to evaluate the impact of
aid at the country level and even project level. This can really answer the question that under
what conditions what type of aid helped growth and poverty reduction in developing countries.
The methodology developed in this paper can be used to identify typologies on other
outcome variables, such as those included in the Millennium Development Goals.