Files
Abstract
The March 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor examines how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global fertilizer and fertilizer feedstock trade and assesses the implications for U.S. agriculture and major importing countries. Triggered by military escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran in late February 2026, the closure halted commercial shipping through one of the world’s most important energy and fertilizer corridors, blocking large shares of globally traded urea, sulfur, ammonia, and phosphate. The analysis shows that the Persian Gulf accounts for a substantial portion of seaborne fertilizer trade and that the disruption extends beyond direct Gulf exports through sulfur-dependent phosphate production in countries such as China, Morocco, and Indonesia. The report finds that the United States faces meaningful exposure in urea and phosphate markets, although domestic ammonia production and North American supply relationships provide some buffer. Other major agricultural economies, including Brazil, India, and Australia, appear more vulnerable because of their greater reliance on Gulf shipments. Compared with the 2022 Russia-Ukraine trade shock, the current disruption is more concentrated on fertilizer and input costs than on grain markets, limiting the crop price offset that supported farm revenues in 2022. The report concludes that the duration of the closure will be the key determinant of fertilizer price escalation and farm margin pressure in 2026.