California Pork Market Responds to Proposition 12 with Higher Prices and Lower Consumption

In July 2023, California began enforcing Proposition 12, a voter-approved law that sets minimum space requirements for breeding sows and prohibits the sale of non-compliant pork within the state. The policy created new regulatory barriers for pork entering the California market, resulting in constrained supply and added compliance costs for producers. Drawing on high-frequency scanner-level data from July 2022 to June 2025, this analysis finds that Proposition 12 has led to lasting changes in California’s pork market. Retail prices for key pork cuts have increased sharply relative to national trends, while the state’s share of national pork consumption has declined. The results point to a structural shift in consumer behavior and pricing dynamics, with effects that have persisted over a two-year period.