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Abstract
In December 2025, the USDA announced up to $11 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments to provide temporary support to producers facing market disruptions and increased production costs during the 2025 crop year. This analysis provides a descriptive projection of potential FBA payment rates across major field crops, based on the program structure outlined by USDA and drawing on the methodology used in the 2024 Emergency Commodity Assistance Program. Using national yield, price, and cost-of-production data, we model per-acre economic losses and corresponding FBA payment rates under alternative assumptions regarding yields, prices, and payment constraints. Results show large variations in per-acre payment rates across commodities, with cotton and rice receiving the highest per-acre payments. The analysis also illustrates how changes in yield realizations, price projections, and the application of PLC minimum payment provisions affect the distribution of payments. All estimates are projections intended to inform understanding of potential outcomes prior to USDA’s release of official FBA payment rates.