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Abstract
The December 2025 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor highlights how court decisions, tariff relief, and new trade agreements are reshaping U.S. agriculture amid uncertain Chinese demand. At the center is the Supreme Court’s pending ruling on whether IEEPA can support the “fentanyl” and broad “reciprocal” tariffs; betting markets see about a one-in-four chance they are fully upheld, suggesting some tightening of executive tariff authority is more likely than a blank check. Even before the ruling, November executive orders eased the shock: exemptions for major fertilizers and lower duties on beef, coffee, cocoa, fruit, and nuts cut IEEPA tariffs on agricultural inputs from 11 to 9 percent and on food imports from 15 to 9 percent, relieving cost pressure on producers and consumers. In parallel, reciprocal negotiations with 13 partners, including deals with Cambodia and Malaysia and frameworks with Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, and the EU, blend tariff reductions, fixes to non-tariff barriers, and purchase commitments that could deepen and diversify export demand if implemented. On the China front, the four-year pledge to buy 87 MMT of U.S. soybeans is sending mixed signals: November “flash” purchases even when U.S. soybeans were roughly $80/mt more expensive than Brazilian supplies highlight the influence of policy, yet cumulative sales of 2.15 MMT by early December, about 18 percent of the 12 MMT 2025 target, imply that honoring the commitment would require faster buying in 2026. Overall, the Monitor points to cautious optimism, with gains from tariff relief and new access tempered by legal uncertainty and execution risk.