Developments in the Dairy Industries of Mexico, Central America, Argentina, and Brazil -- Implications for the U.S. Dairy Sector

The purpose of this Discussion Paper is to evaluate how economic problems and developments in the dairy industries of Mexico, Central America, Argentina, and Brazil will affect the U.S. dairy sector. Mexico, a signatory to the North American Free Trade Agreement, now applies zero tariffs to imports of most U.S. dairy products. Nonfat dry milk (NFDM) is a notable exception; Mexican tariffs on U.S. exports of NFDM will not go to zero until 2008. However, Mexico’s dairy market no longer represents "low hanging fruit" for U.S. dairy exporters. Margins on exports of bulk dairy products to Mexico are razor thin. Nicaragua and other Central American countries are seeking to expand export sales of dry, hard, salty (morolique) cheese to the U.S. Argentina’s economic recession has hampered that country’s ability to be the dairy supplier of South America. Brazil’s dairy industry has weathered the economic recession with limited damage. Brazil appears poised to be a strong competitor in international dairy markets.