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Abstract
The objective of this report is to re-visit the “adequacy of speculation” debate in agricultural
futures markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions
held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment of Traders reports. The results
suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have
stabilized as a percent of total open interest. Traditional speculative measures do not show any
material changes or shifts over the sample period. In most markets, the increase in long
speculative positions was equaled or surpassed by an increase in short hedging. So, even after
adjusting speculative indices for index fund positions, values are within the historical ranges
reported in prior research. One implication is that long-only index funds may be beneficial in
markets traditionally dominated by short hedging. Attempts to curb speculation through
regulatory means should be weighed carefully against the potential benefits provided by this
class of speculators.