The Likelihood of Conviction: Evidence from Uganda’s Anti-Corruption Court

Corruption distorts resource allocations and impedes economic growth and development. Many developing countries , including Uganda grapple with growing corruption. This led to establishment of anti-corruptions agencies to improve governance and attract foreign direct investments. One of the agencies Uganda established is the Anti-Corruption Court. This study examines the likelihood of conviction in Uganda’s Anti-Corruption Court. The study used data extracted from 105 judgements and logistic regression analysis to examine how case type, characteristics of accused person, prosecution strength, and judicial factors influence the likelihood of conviction. Results show that, relative to abuse of office, the probability of conviction is lower for money laundering and embezzlement. Accused persons in the private sector or those employed in the public sector face higher conviction probabilities than political office holders. Furthermore, female judges are more likely to convict suspects than their male counterparts. The experience of a judge also increases the likelihood conviction, while the number of prosecution witnesses shows no significant effect. These results reveal important institutional and procedural factors shaping anti-corruption efforts in Uganda and offer empirical evidence to improve rule of law which is a prerequisite for sustainable economic development in Uganda and other African countries.