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Abstract
The objective was to evaluate the effect of an import restriction on production, consumption, producer prices, consumer prices and the Net Social Value of beef in Mexico on a regional basis in 2020, through a non-linear programming model. For this purpose, the country was divided into eight producing, eight consuming regions and two points of import imports. The results indicate that under optimal conditions the model overestimated domestic production by 0.5%, imports by 6.5% and consumption by 0.9%, with an optimal Net Social Value of 14.1 billion pesos. Restricting beef imports would protect domestic production by 0.5%, reduce domestic consumption by 0.9%. Producer and consumer prices would increase and the NSV would decrease by 0.1%. It is concluded that, at a regional level, the Mexican beef market is sensitive to the closing of imports, protects national producers, unprotects consumers and reduces the welfare of society.