California Retail Pork Prices and Consumption Two Years into the Proposition 12 Implementation

In January 2024, California fully implemented Proposition 12, which imposes minimum confinement standards for breeding sows and restricts the sale of non-compliant pork products within the state. This white paper evaluates the impact of Proposition 12 on California’s retail pork market. Using high-frequency scanner-level retail data, the analysis estimates changes in retail pork prices and consumption volumes in California relative to national trends. Results indicate substantial and persistent price increases for regulated pork cuts. California’s share of national pork consumption declined across all major products, with no signs of recovery during the post-policy period. Econometric assessment finds that Proposition 12 increased California’s pork prices by 20 percent and reduced pork consumption by 15 percent. Robustness checks using exempt products show minimal change in prices or volumes, supporting the policy-specific nature of the results. Overall, the findings suggest that Proposition 12 led to lasting changes in California’s pork market, characterized by higher retail prices and reduced consumption.