Are Solar Power Installations on Agricultural Land Undermining the Enrollment in Agricultural Conservation Easement Programs?

As solar energy infrastructure rapidly expands across the U.S., particularly on agricultural land, it increasingly competes with farmland conservation efforts such as the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). This study investigates whether utility-scale solar development undermines ACEP enrollment, focusing on spatial and temporal substitution patterns between these two land uses. Drawing on a county-level panel dataset spanning 2002 to 2022 across the contiguous U.S., this study employs discrete-time hazard and competing risks models to estimate the timing and probability of ACEP enrollment relative to solar land conversion. Findings reveal that ACEP enrollment and solar development rarely coincide within the same county-year, indicating emerging substitution. While cumulative solar presence may, in some cases, trigger defensive conservation efforts, large-scale solar installations are generally associated with lower ACEP enrollment, especially in high-farmland, rural regions. Urban and high-saturation counties, by contrast, exhibit stronger institutional continuity and peer effects driving conservation. These results suggest a growing land-use conflict between climate mitigation and agricultural preservation goals, calling for integrated policy solutions such as adaptive easement designs or differentiated incentives to reconcile conservation with renewable energy expansion.