Economic Impacts of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) on Dairy Farms and Milk Supply

This paper assesses of economic impacts of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows in California. We develop a simulation model that incorporates preliminary assessments of the prevalence of infected cows in herds with H5N1, the progression of the disease through a herd, and dairy farm management of the disease. We assess impacts on aggregate California dairy production and market implications. We also estimate impacts of H5N1 on milk shipments using a large sample of herds infected at diGerent dates as the disease spread through the region. Finally, we use USDA data on monthly milk production in California and simulated quantities assuming no H5N1 to calculate shortfalls in milk quantities and revenue.