Weathering Violence in India: Climate Shocks, Spousal Abuse and Potential Mediating Factors

This study investigates the causal relationship between climate shocks and women’s experiences of physical intimate partner violence (P-IPV) in rural India. Using geo-coded weather data linked to domestic violence reports from the two recent rounds of the Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS 2015–16 and 2019–21), I find that droughts, wet shocks, and extreme heat during the most recent kharif growing season significantly increase the likelihood of women experiencing P-IPV. Specifically, exposure to a drought during the growing season increases the prevalence of less-severe P-IPV by 11.6%, while wet shocks increase severe P-IPV by 30.6%. Heat stress, measured as cumulative degree days above 30°C, is also associated with higher rates of both less-severe and severe IPV. Further analysis suggests that increased economic insecurity, husband’s alcohol use and marital controlling behaviors, and a decline in women’s empowerment are central pathways underlying these effects. Additional heterogeneity analyses reveal that household characteristics — such as land ownership and bank account access play a protective role by offering formal or informal insurance that helps buffer the harmful effects of drought on P-IPV.