Assessing the Potential Costs to Agricultural Exporters of Section 301 Annex 1 and 2 Fees

On April 17, 2025, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) finalized a Section 301 action targeting China’s dominance in shipbuilding and maritime logistics by imposing new port fees on Chinese-operated (Annex 1) and Chinese-built (Annex 2) vessels arriving at U.S. ports. This white paper evaluates the implications of these fees for U.S. agricultural exports, using 2024 data on port calls and vessel characteristics. We simulate the counterfactual costs that would have been incurred under the final policy, finding that, absent shifts in routing or vessel choice, annual shipping costs could initially rise by $2.3 billion and escalate to $6.2 billion by 2028. For major commodities such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, the added fees translate to an estimated 5 to 7 cents per bushel.