How Big is the U.S. Cattle Herd?

With the USDA cancelling its regularly scheduled July cattle inventory report due to budget cuts, that’s a question that many would like to have answered. Fortunately, historical relationships between changes in prior and subsequent inventories and levels of cow slaughter in between or heifers’ share of cattle on feed offer some indication. These negative relationships respectively explain 30% and 50% of the variation in changes in cattle inventory from one July to the next. While the share of January cow inventory that is slaughtered by July has dropped from 8.75% in 2003 to 7.76% in 2004, suggesting a slowing of cow herd liquidation, the current level still corresponds to a reduction in the July over July total inventory, as does the proportion of feedlot cattle that are heifers, currently at 39.6% compared to 39.9% last July. A model incorporating both variables explains 61% of inventory changes and estimates the July 1 U.S. cattle inventory to be 94.2 million head or 1.2% lower than in July 2023.1 Hence, it appears the U.S. cattle industry overall remains in a contractionary phase, even if there may be regional pockets of expansion.