Record Pigs per Litter Starting to Sound Like a Broken Record?

The USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report holds few surprises. As expected, the September 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs, at 76.5 million head, is up 1.69% from last quarter and 0.46% from last year, while the breeding herd is up 0.6% from last quarter but down 2.2% from a year ago, and market hogs are 1.78% higher than last quarter and 0.69% higher than last year. Inventories of market hogs in the under-50-pound class and the 50-119-pound class are down 1.5% and 1.3% relative to last year, while 120-179-pound class and those weighing 180 pounds and up are 3.5% and 4.8% higher. Essentially, trade expectations overestimated the lighter two weight categories and underestimated the larger two, with the largest class being the biggest surprise at 3.2% higher than expected. The abundance of heavier hogs should put downward pressure on near-term prices. However, overall, there’s just 0.2% fewer hogs weighing under 180 pounds than a year ago, which will be the market hogs arriving at processing plants from October 2024 through February 2025.