What If USTR Had Applied Its February 2025 Port Fees Proposal? An Economic Analysis of U.S. Dry Bulk Agricultural Exports

In February 2025, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) proposed a set of trade measures to counter China’s maritime and shipbuilding dominance. These proposals raised concerns about potential impacts on U.S. agricultural exports. However, such concerns were substantially revised in the final April 17, 2025, determination. This white paper—the first series of analysis in USTR’s Section 301 actions—examines the February 2025 proposal and simulates its hypothetical impacts on U.S. agricultural products exported via ocean bulk cargo shipping. The findings, related to USTR’s original proposal, indicate that port entry fees on Chinese-built vessels could increase U.S. bulk cargo agricultural export costs, while proposed fees targeting Chinese operators would likely have a more modest impact. Additionally, the proposed mandate to shift exports to U.S.-built vessels would be extremely challenging over the proposed timeline, given the current limited availability of U.S.-built vessels. Readers should interpret these findings as an upper bound estimate of the impact of the previously proposed policies, rather than a reflection of current policy. Part 2 of this series will assess the finalized measures.