The sustainability of agri-food systems: is organic production part of the solution?

Satisfying the increasing food demand, while supporting the sustainability of agri-food systems is seen as a major global challenge in the future. This study investigates how environmental policies, in terms of higher organic production targets, might affect the whole sustainability of agrifood systems at the national and international levels. By using simulations from the Simplified International Model of Agricultural Prices, Land Use, and Environment (SIMPLE) model, extended for the first time to distinguish organic from conventional production, we project socio-economic and emission outcomes in response to the 25% of organic farmland by 2030 fixed by the EU Farm to Fork strategy in Italy. Overall, results indicate that even though the F2F strategy in Italy is projected to increase crop production and reduce GHG emissions by 2030, it will also raise crop prices, slightly increase land use, and intensify non-land input demands under conventional agriculture. The findings underscore the need for complementary policies and coordinated action plans across territorial and sectoral levels to balance economic, social, and environmental sustainability.