Droughts and Agricultural Land Concentration in France

This paper examines the impact of recurrent droughts on farm size and land concentration in France over the short run (2015–2022) and long run (1988–2020). While droughts in developing countries often drive cropland expansion, evidence from developed economies remains scarce. Using panel data from 716 small agricultural regions and econometric models, we analyze structural shifts in landholding patterns based on average and median farm size. Drought exposure is measured through absolute (Soil Wetness Index, SWI) and relative (zscore) indicators. Our findings show that severe droughts accelerate land concentration, with the strongest effects in summer and autumn. Droughts also reduce agricultural land prices, facilitating acquisitions by larger farms, while forcing smaller farmers to exit. Additionally, total agricultural land use declines, further reinforcing concentration trends. These results highlight the structural consequences of climatic shocks in developed economies, where farm concentration is the dominant adaptation response.