Tariff Retaliation Threats and Potential Economic Impacts on North Dakota Agriculture

U.S. agriculture faces heightened exposure to retaliatory trade actions. This report evaluates the potential risks to U.S. and North Dakota agriculture under four trade policy scenarios involving Canada, Mexico, and China. We quantify trade risks across key commodities using detailed trade elasticity estimates and projected agricultural export data. The results show that soybean and wheat exports are particularly vulnerable, with southeastern and north-central counties in North Dakota projected to experience the greatest economic impact. These findings underscore the substantial vulnerability of North Dakota’s agricultural economy to retaliatory tariffs and highlight the need for targeted risk mitigation strategies that enhance market resilience, stabilize farm revenues, and reduce dependence on a narrow set of export markets.