Shifting Trade Policies and the Outlook for U.S. Walnut Exports

The U.S. walnut industry is experiencing growing economic uncertainty due to shifting trade policies and the threat of retaliatory tariffs. This report analyzes the potential trade risks under seven different policy scenarios, drawing on historical trade data and trade elasticity estimates. The findings indicate that while isolated actions, such as China’s 125% tariff, may have limited effects, broader retaliation from multiple trading partners could significantly disrupt export demand, with losses reaching up to $160 million.