Modelado del nivel de tolerancia a la presencia de grandes carnívoros en un área rural de Mexico

With the purpose of identifying the factors that can increase the level of tolerance of rural residents towards the presence of large carnivores, a simulation model of the impact and cost-benefit balance was developed, considering among other variables the predation of domestic livestock, the loss of agricultural/livestock productivity, the loss of safety, the income from recreational activities and the ecological benefits. All the variables were assigned a percentage of influence based on the experience from the authors’ work in the Huasteca Potosina region, in México. Likewise, three principal strategies were included for the solution of conflicts and the promotion of tolerance: education and environmental awareness, mitigation and reduction of material and welfare losses, as well as community participation towards conservation actions. In the simulation, the individual strategies did not generate a favorable response in a period of less than five years; however, when combined, they showed better results. Examples of combined intervention were carried out to simulate their reach. In the best cases, three years were necessary to neutralize the level of tolerance and six years to obtain the maximum level. This model facilitates the understanding about the impact of the use of these strategies.