Economic Risks of Tariff Escalation for California Almond Producers

California’s almond industry faces increasing economic uncertainty from trade policy shifts and potential tariff retaliation. This report evaluates the trade risks associated with seven trade policy scenarios using trade elasticity estimates and historical trade data. The findings indicate that broad-based tariff measures could significantly reduce export demand, with Fresno, Kern, and Stanislaus counties experiencing the largest losses. These potential disruptions underscore the need for strategic planning, including market diversification and policy adaptations, to mitigate risks and sustain the industry’s global position.