Key Messages • Diversification away from tobacco production has been framed as a priority for Malawi. • From 2004 to 2019, the share of Malawian crop farmers producing tobacco fell from 16% to 5%, and tobaccoʼs share of the total value of crop production also declined sharply. • In important respects, a transition away from tobacco has already occurred. • Over this period, farm-gate prices for tobacco have declined relative to the prices of maize or fertilizer, as has the share of the export price that is received by farmers. • Research is needed to understand why the farm-gate share of tobacco export prices has declined, and how the livelihoods of smallholder farm-households that exited tobacco production have been affected. • Additional research should also identify the investments needed to develop viable alternatives to tobacco, including improvements in non-tobacco value chains and on-farm technologies.