Food aid needs will nearly double over the next decade, even with reasonably optimistic assumptions about recipient countries' ability to produce their own food or to import food commercially. Total food aid needs to maintain consumption and meet emergency needs are projected at 15 million tons in 1996, increasing to 27 million tons by 2005. Other scenarios result in even higher food aid needs. There is a looming mismatch between food aid resources and needs. If global food aid budgets are maintained at 1995 levels, the gap between needs and resources will grow rapidly. Factors limiting food aid availabilities include changes in agricultural policies that will reduce surpluses and reductions in aid budgets in donor countries. The study has major implications for thinking about food aid over the next decade. The need for food aid--both chronic and emergency--will not automatically diminish.