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Abstract
Post-Brexit agricultural support policy development in Wales is taking a holistic approach to sustainability combining economic, environmental and social goals in one scheme to replace the CAP. It is taking a different model compared to the other UK nations or the EU. But the challenges faced by farming have intensified with COVID and the Ukraine war including the input/output price squeeze. We used the agrarian diagnosis, a holistic case-study approach to analyse selected farm focused territories that represent typical trends in Welsh farming. We identified and quantified future scenarios relating to a range of challenges faced by Welsh farming and made a territorially sensitive impact assessment by applying those in successive steps to farm models originating from the case-studies. We first assessed the impact of the current macro-economic evolution, before considering the adoption and impact of the planned SFS with a specific focus on tenanted farms, the new form of tenancy and treeplanting, as these elements have featured heavily in stakeholder responses to the Welsh scheme. The results show that the current economic context represents a challenge for those farms using high levels of production factors. Particularly for these, it is possible to identify how the Welsh scheme could deliver many improvements; nevertheless, problems remain around impact on generational renewal, competing land uses and supply-chain and technological lock-ins.