Policies to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture, their implications for agricultural activity levels and land use decisions in Ireland

To prevent the most damaging effects of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have identified the need to limit the rise in the global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. In support of the goal of climate change mitigation, Ireland’s Climate Action Plan has set a goal of reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and setting us on a path to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. As part of the plan the agriculture sector has been set of 25% reduction target relative to 2018. This paper utilises the CAPRI model to evaluate the effect of a hypothetical €100 carbon tax on non-CO2 emissions for agricultural. Results revealed that under a €100 carbon tax, overall GHG emissions would decrease in large part due to a decrease in beef meat activities, which is along with the dairy sector the dominant source of methane emissions in Irish agriculture. Average agricultural income would be projected to increase due to less profitable production exiting under carbon tax and price. A significant increase in the area of set aside and fallow land is also observed, which leads to a reduction in agricultural land and can be used for an increase in afforestation.