Reductions in GHG emissions to reach the Paris Agreement’s commitments will affect all sectors, including agriculture. The size of such commitments in the agricultural sector is likely to differ across countries. This creates the potential for shifts in competitiveness between producers from different countries, resulting in changes in production and trade patterns. In this paper, we first perform a cluster analysis to determine the likelihood of countries setting ambitious targets within their agricultural sector, using multiple dimensions for comparison. Second, these country-specific estimated climate targets for the agricultural sector (in addition to alternative technological developments) are utilized in simulating several alternative scenarios towards 2030, using a recursive dynamic CGE model.