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Abstract
The GTAP-E-Power model, which breaks down the power sector in the framework of the GTAP-E model, has recently been developed. Using the GTAP-E-Power model, it would be possible to analyze the effect of the change in the structure in the power sector, taking the effect of energy substitution into account. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the structure of the power sector in Japan has drastically changed and will continue to change in attaining targets concerning aspects such as zero-emission power source ratio, energy saving, energy self-sufficiency, and energy-derived CO2emissions. This research analyzes the effect of the change in the Japanese power supply using the GTAP-E-Power model. We will try, too, to update the database of the GTAP-E-Power model from GTAP 9.0 to GTAP 10.0, released in February 2020. The impact on Japan’s macroeconomy, power sector and industry will be analyzed by comparing the results of several policy scenarios, in which Japan’s zero-emission power supply growth rate changes from 2019 to 2030. In our simulations, shocks concerning the growth rate in real GDP, the labor force, population, and Japanese zero-emission base load power supply will be introduced. First, simulations from 2014 to 2018 will be performed to update the GTAP-E-Power database. Since the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011, the power supply composition in Japan has been changing significantly and it is therefore desirable to analyze the situation of Japan’s power supply and to update the database for 2018 to ensure that it reflects the actual values. Next, simulations from 2019 to 2030 will be performed for policy scenarios with different growth rate of zero-emission power supply in Japan. Simulation results show that a change in zero-emission power supply will influence Japan's energy and industrial structure as well as have a rather positive effect on Japanese GDP growth.