Cashing in the demographic dividend

The asymmetry of demographic change across countries will alter both the relative sizes and the comparative advantages of countries in the global marketplace. International trade in goods and services and increased cross-border investment will allow labor-intensive production to shift from its current centers, particularly East Asia, to South Asia and Africa. Enhanced labor mobility, achieved through policies such as expanding opportunities for legal labor migration, will help to improve the delivery of non-traded services to aging populations using labor from countries with younger populations. These shifts will trigger significant forces for structural change which will be easier to navigate with cooperation between countries rather than individually. In addition the demographic changes will also feedback on to existing areas of cooperation such as the environment and climate change. This paper takes as given the demographic forces of countries around the world and asks, in turn, how trade and migration – combine to produce an overall pattern of adjustment. Following from that, the importance of different policy stances can be explored as the world moves through its inexorable demographic change.