Ecological Balance Determined by Human Choice: How does forestland change with consumer preferences for GM soybeans?

This paper modifies approaches for evaluating welfare impacts on consumer preferences of genetically modified (GM) foods from Yang (2015) and uses GTAP-Agro-Ecological Zones (GTAP-AEZ) model (Lee, 2005) to estimate the ecological impacts of consumer preferences of GM foods. The paper (i) accesses GTAP Land Use and Land Cover Data Base including six growing periods of three different climatic zones to evaluate the change in forestland; (ii) uses GM soybeans as an example to focus on the impact on change of natural forest in three largest suppliers of GM soybeans (i.e., the U.S., Brazil and Argentina) brought by change in soybean imports in China—the world’s largest soybean importing country—that are reflected by consumer attitudes toward the consumption of GM soybeans; (iii) and compares with the estimated impact on forestland in China affected by change in Chinese domestic production that are reflected by negative consumer preferences of general GM foods. Lastly, this paper uses FAOSTAT data and ArcGIS and applies methodology drawn upon U.S. Forest Services and previous forest ecology studies to evaluate the estimated impact on forest ecosystem (i.e., carbon sequestration) due to change in consumer preferences.