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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the welfare and employment effects of the liberalization of services trade between ACP and EU countries. Of primary importance is the timing of the liberalization of the service sector with respect to the liberalization of the goods sectors, especially for the implications for and impacts on employment and welfare. This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model (GDyn) and takes into account the differences in labour productivity trend among trading blocks and regions. The simulation includes varying the rates of productivity growth and technological progress and the timing and the rates of tariff cuts in the services sectors to examine the extent of welfare and employment effects. The scenarios are designed to determine the distribution of the welfare and employment gains or losses among regions and among sectors for the time horizon 2010-2050.

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