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Abstract

Since the 1950s, increased agricultural productivity has allowed food supply growth to outpace demand on a global scale, resulting in a downward trend in world prices. Investments into agricultural research and development (R&D) have been the foundation for this achievement. Optimal R&D spending depends on future population, income and climate change, all of which are highly uncertain. This study offers a dynamic framework for analyzing optimal agricultural R&D spending in 21st century factoring in uncertainties in these drivers.

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