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Abstract
Under alternative visions of globalization, this article analyzes how oil dependency and climate change create long-term macroeconomic challenges in China. Using the Imaclim-R model, we find that fragmented capital markets affect negatively technical change but release capitals for local investments, which prove beneficial for China. Regionalized good markets have a positive effect since less intense international trade moderates the effects of oil constraints. However acting on globalization processes is insufficient to avoid important socio-economic tensions caused by the sustainability constraints. We suggest that a sustainable future will require a policy mix that resorts to a plurality of complementary instruments.