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Abstract

We develop a sub-national version of the GTAP model for Italy. The upgraded model allows assessing more properly the trade and environmental policies and/or shocks, whose effects can be largely different within a country. We use an innovative method to estimate bilateral trade flows across sub-national regions. In addition, the theoretical structure is modified in order to incorporate the possibility of an increasing spatial mobility in both factors and goods market at sub-country level. We carry out a simple experiment to test the robustness of our model. Results are consistent with the standard CGE assumptions; moving towards more competitive and integrated markets a negative shock results in a lower loss in terms of welfare.

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